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-In terms of historical emissions, industrialized countries account for roughly 80% of the carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere to date. Since 1950, the U.S. has emitted a cumulative total of roughly 50.7 billion tons of carbon, while China (4.6 times more populous) and India (3.5 times more populous) have emitted only 15.7 and 4.2 billion tons respectively (although their numbers will rise).
-Annually, more than 60 percent of global industrial carbon dioxide emissions originate in industrialized countries, where only about 20 percent of the world’s population resides.
-Much of the growth in emissions in developing countries results from the provision of basic human needs for growing populations, while emissions in industrialized countries contribute to growth in a standard of living that is already far above that of the average person worldwide. This is exemplified by the large contrasts in per capita carbons emissions between industrialized and developing countries. Per capita emissions of carbon in the U.S. are over 20 times higher than India, 12 times higher than Brazil and seven times higher than China.
The United States is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. It:
-Accounts for roughly four percent of the world’s population;
-Accounts for approximately 23% of global emissions and 42% of industrialized country emissions.
The European Union (E.U.), if considered as a whole (for it is more comparable to the U.S.):
-Accounts for roughly 3 percent of the world’s population;
-Accounts for around 10% of global emissions and 24% of industrialized countries' manmade emissions of the six main gases;
-Recent years have seen a reduction in emissions from those initial 15-member states. However:
-It is not near the level required;
-For the 2003, emissions from EU countries have actually increased slightly (though still remaining slightly lower than 1990 levels).
Kyoto protocol
The Kyoto Protocol was the climate change treaty negotiated in 1997, setting targets for emissions of greenhouse gases.
In order to be binding under international law, the treaty would need ratification from the countries responsible for around 55% of the global greenhouse gas emissions of 1990.
The U.S. being the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, pulled out in 2001, leaving treaty ratification dependent on Russia, responsible for 17% of world emissions. Russia has to cut emission levels from the Soviet days, and their emissions in the past decade has been far less, so it should not pose as much of a problem to reduce such emissions.
Noting the above, the BBC commented on this adding that Kyoto was only ever a first step – now discussions on the next, more stringent, target on greenhouse gas emissions can begin.
Problem of Global warming being ignored
For a very long time, something of contention and debate in the U.S. had been whether or not a lot of climate change has in fact been induced by human activities, while many scientists around the world, Europe especially, have been more convinced that this is the case.
In May 2002, the Bush Administration in the U.S. did admit a link between human activities and climate change. However, at the same time the administration has continued its controversial stance of maintaining that it will not participate in the international treaty to limit global warming, the Kyoto Protocol, due to economic priorities and concerns. (More about the Kyoto Protocol, U.S. and others’ actions/inactions is discussed in subsequent pages on this section.)
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Throughout the 1990s, especially in the United States, but in other countries as well, those who would try and raise the importance of this issue, and suggest that we are perhaps overconsuming, or unsustainably using our resources etc, were faced with a lot of criticism and ridicule. In addition, it has been known for some time that developing countries will be affected the most. Reasons vary from lacking resources to cope, compared to developed nations, immense poverty, regions that many developing countries are in happen to be the ones where severe weather will hit the most, small island nations area already seeing sea level rising, and so on. German Watch published a Global Climate Risk Index in December 2009 that attempted to list the nations that would be affected the most from climate change based on extreme weather such as hurricanes and floods.
Between 1998 and 2007 they found these were the most affected nations: 1 Honduras; 2 Bangladesh; 3 Nicaragua; 4 Dominican Republic; 5 Haiti; 6 Vietnam; 7 India; 8 Mozambique; 9 Venezuela; 10 Philippines.
Many Sources of Greenhouse Gases Being Discovered
Pollution from various industries, the burning of fossil fuels, methane from farm animals, forest destruction, rotting/dead vegetation etc have led to an increased number of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. And, as international trade in its current form continues to expand with little regard for the environment, the transportation alone, of goods is thought to considerably contribute to global warming via emissions from planes, ships and other transportation vehicles. (For more about trade and globalization in its current form and how it affects the environment, as well as other consequences, visit this web site’s section on Trade,
Economy, & Related Issues.)
Even sulphur emitted from ships are thought to contribute a fair bit to climate change. (If you have registered at the journal, Nature, then you can see the report here.) In fact, sulphur based gas, originating from industry, discovered in 2000 is thought to be the most potent greenhouse gas measured to date. It is called trifluoromethyl sulphur pentafluoride (SF5CF3).
NewScientist.com reports (December 22, 2003) on a study that suggests soot particles may be worse than carbon dioxide in contributing to global warming. The soot particles also originate from industry, and during the industrial revolution, was quite common. While on the positive side there is less soot these days and perhaps easier to control if needed, alone, as one of the scientists of the study commented, “It does not change the need to slow down the growth rate of carbon dioxide and eventually stabilize the atmospheric amount.”
NewScientist.com and others have also reported (August 2005) that the world’s largest frozen peat bog is melting, and could unleash billions of tones of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. An area the size of France and Germany combined has been melting in the last 4 years. In addition, “Western Siberia has warmed faster than almost anywhere else on the planet, with an increase in average temperatures of some 3°C in the last 40 years.”A scientist explained a fear that if the bogs dry out as they warm, the methane will oxidize and escape into the air as carbon dioxide. But if the bogs remain wet, as is the case in western Siberia today, then the methane will be released straight into the atmosphere. Methane is 20 times as potent a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide.
Environmental situations in different countries 1. Germany
Long-term weather recording shows that Germany is already affected by climate change. Regarding temperature development, the 1990s were observed to be the warmest decade in Germany during the 20th century, in accordance to the global observation. The annual average temperature increased by ca. 0.8 to 1ºC between 1900 and 2000. However, this warming did not occur linearly. A strong warming up to 1911 was followed by a heterogeneous period. The 1940s were exceptionally warm.
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After a cooling trend up to the 1970s we now observe a continuous and rapid temperature increase that still continues today. There is strong regional variation. In the last decade (1990s), the temperature rise in southern and south-western Germany was exceptionally strong. Observations on seasonal trends in the warming depend on period in time and method.
During the last twenty years a trend toward stronger temperature increase in winter than in summer has been observed. For example, the temperature increase in the winter months in
Germany during the period between 1981 and 2000 was 2.3ºC, while in the summer months it was merely 0.7ºC.
Precipitation in Germany is characterized by strong regional and seasonal variations. In the long term, neither the average values nor the seasonal or regional distribution show significant trends. During the last 100 years there has been a small trend towards increased winter precipitation, but this trend is not significant. In the last 30 years, however, there was indeed a definite increase in winter precipitation. Summer precipitation in contrast showed little change. Changes in the duration of snow cover are also relevant. Since 1950, a decrease by 30-40% in the duration of snow cover has been observed in altitudes below 300m in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg. In the medium altitudes (300-800m) the decrease was 1020%. In higher altitudes over 800m only small decreases and in places even increases were observed, due to increased winter precipitation and sufficiently low temperatures for snowfall.
There is only partial evidence for an increase in climate extremes, such as heat waves, extreme rainfalls and storms. Extreme heat events, such as heat days (T>30ºC) or heat waves (intervals of more than three days during which the maximum daily temperature lies above a certain high threshold, relative to the specific temperature standard of the weather station) exhibit a definite trend. For example, the probability of occurrence of heat days in the months of July and August has risen over the last one hundred, and especially markedly during the last twenty years at almost all weather stations in Germany. The intensity and frequency of occurrence of extreme rainfall events have increased especially during the last forty years of the 20th century.
In general, this trend is more pronounced in the winter than in the summer. The intensity and frequency of occurrence of squalls have also been investigated. However, at present no statistically significant trend can be found. There is a tendency of increased probability of occurrence of extremely high daily wind speed maxima (Bft > 8) during winter (with the exception of coastal regions), and decreased occurrence of such maxima in summer (with the exception of southern Germany).
With regard to future temperature development, all ATEAM scenarios that were analyzed in this study exhibit a definite warming trend for Germany. The range of warming of the long-term annual average temperatures up to the year 2080 within the seven climate scenarios considered was +1.6 to +3.8ºC. Many scenarios show a particularly strong warming in the south-west, in some cases also in the far east of Germany. The scenarios exhibit heterogeneous seasonal changes. The trend of stronger warming during winter, observed in the past, cannot be found in the future scenarios.
All climate scenarios show very small changes in annual precipitation, which lie mostly below 10% up to the year 2080. Stronger trends can be found in winter and summer precipitation. All seven climate scenarios show an increase in winter precipitation, while most scenarios show a decrease in summer precipitation. This is in accordance with the observed trend of a shift of precipitation into the winter half year. An especially pronounced increase in winter precipitation was projected for Southern Germany, at least in the scenarios that are based on the climate model HadCM3. In these scenarios, the decrease of summer precipitation is concentrated on Southwest Germany (Rhineland) and central parts of Eastern Germany. However, the projections of the other climate models partly produce regionally contradicting trends.
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2. Japan
Extreme summer heat, humidity and pollution already lead to excess cardio-respiratory illness and mortality in Japanese cities. Data collected for the over 65 year-old age group suggest that the threshold temperature for triggering excess summer heat-related mortality is about 33 C; the greatest increase in mortality is associated with days on which afternoon temperatures and humidity are high, and wind speeds low. Increased temperatures are also associated with increases in the concentration of ground-level ozone in metropolitan areas and this in turn is associated with increased frequency of asthma attacks, severe respiratory irritation and decreased pulmonary functions.
There are 4 scenarios of future climate situation in Japan: from the most desirable to the worst. They are given on the next page.
This leaflet is one of a series produced for WWF that describe state-of-the-art climate change scenarios for a number of countries and regions around the world. The scenarios use observed climate data held by the Climatic Research Unit, a set of preliminary greenhouse gas emissions scenarios prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a series of recent climate change experiments performed using seven global climate models, results from which are available through the IPCC Data Distribution Centre.
Japan warms slightly more rapidly than the global average. Warming is slightly greater in winter than in summer, and greater over northern Japan compared to southern Japan. Summer warming varies from about 0.1°C/decade under the B1-low scenario compared to more than
0.3°C/decade under the A2-high scenario.
Future climate change is likely to exacerbate this situation with more hot summers in Japan and more intense heat waves occurring in these hot summers. For the Tokyo region, we calculate that hot summers currently occurring just once a decade, will be occurring in between 41 and 98 per cent of years by the 2050s depending on the scenario. Winters will also become very much milder.
3. Great Britain
Britain has become twice as stormy in the past 50 years as climate change has forced the deep depressions that used to hit Iceland further south, it was revealed yesterday. In a second disturbing discovery, the Hadley Centre for climate prediction and research in Exeter added that pressure changes in the atmosphere had caused storms to become more intense.
While low pressure areas which bring high wind and rain are getting deeper, the high pressure areas which bring calm, settled periods are getting stronger. The increased gradients between the two make for more dramatic weather - and for insurance companies, expensive claims for damaged buildings and fences. Drier summers, wetter winters - and little snow.
Average annual temperatures may rise by between 2 and 3.5 C by the 2080s, with greater warming in the south and east than in the north and west of the UK. Hot, humid summers will become more frequent and very cold winters will become increasingly rare. The 1990s was the warmest decade in central England since records began in the 1660s and this warming of climate over land has been accompanied by warming of UK coastal waters. 2003 is on track to be the warmest year on record. Winters will become wetter and summers may become drier across all of the UK. The largest changes will be in the south and east, where summer rainfall may decline by up to 50% by the 2080s. The amount of snow could decline by 60%-90% by the 2080s. Snowfall will decrease throughout the UK. The reductions in average snowfall over Scotland might be between 60% and 90% (depending on the region)
Average sea level around the UK is now about 10cm (4ins) higher than in 1900 and levels could be between 26 and 86cm above the current level in south-east England by the 2080s. Extreme high water levels, which currently have a 2% annual probability, could become 10 to 20 times more frequent at some east coast locations. The thermal growing season for plants in central England has lengthened by about one month since 1900.
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Conclusion
While those denying climate change are reducing in number and there appears to be more effort to try and tackle the problem, climate scientists are now fearing that climate change is happening far faster and is having much larger impacts than they ever imagined.
The Arctic plays an incredibly important role in the balance of the earth’s climate. Rapid changes to it can have knock-on effects to the rest of the planet. Some have described the Arctic as the canary in the coal mine, referring to how canary birds used to be taken deep down coal mines. If they died, it implied oxygen levels were low and signaled mine workers to get out.
But now, scientists are fearing changes are happening to the Arctic much faster than anticipated. Despite computer climate models predicting loss of Arctic sea ice by 2050 to 2080, some scientists fear it could be as soon as 2015. The BBC notes similar concerns by scientists, with one quoted as saying the sea ice is “so thin that you would have to have an exceptional sequence of cold winters and cold summers in order for it to rebuild.”
The Arctic reflects much sunlight back into space helping keep earth temperate. More melting will result in less reflection and even more heat being absorbed by the earth. A chain reaction could result, such as the Greenland ice sheet melting (which will actually increase sea levels, whereas the melting of Arctic ice will not because it is sea ice), possibly increasing the melting of permafrost in Siberia, which will release huge amounts of methane (as noted above), and rapidly change climate patterns, circulation patterns and jet streams, far quicker than what most of the environment could adapt to easily.
All mentioned should make the world society understand, that only a deep collaboration of countries can help to solve the problem. But as we see, they haven’t even had serious conferences on this question. All we can is to hope that UNO and other institutes of international relations won’t ignore this really global issue anymore.
References
1.www.globalissues.org
2.http://commons.wikimedia.org
3.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise
4.http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=6638
5.www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org
6.www.bbc.co.uk
7.www.guardian.co.uk
Evgeniya Belevich,
3rd year student, Institute of Economics and Management, Pacific State University
CHILDHOOD AND YOUTH: HAPPY MEMORIES OR DELUSIVE DREAM?
Nowadays many countries experience an increase in the numbers of street children/youth, and a corresponding rise in public awareness of their existence.
Public perceptions of street children/youth are often quite negative. For many children/youth on the street, family and community support crumble under the pressure of poverty. Many of those who migrate to the streets learn to confront the street with selfreliance. They must survive by whatever means and negotiate the everyday risks and decisions of living on the streets.