Материал: The_Future_of_Hydrogen-IEA-2020

Lindsay Hitchcock

Natural Resources Canada

Théophile Hordé

Safran Group

Andreas Horn

BASF

Brigitta Huckerstein

BASF

Yuki Ishimoto

The Institute of Applied Energy

Nikolas Iwan

H2 Mobility

Emmanouil Kakaras

Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems Europe

Tim Karlsson

IPHE

Rob Kelly

ClimateWorks Australia

Roland Käppner

Thyssenkrupp

Phillippe Kavafyan

MHI Vestas Offshore Wind

Vanessa Koh

Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore

Pawel Konzal

Chevron

Angel Landa Ugarte

Iberdrola

Jonathan Leaver

Unitec Institute of Technology

Ashish Lele

Reliance Industries

Chiara Marricchi

Enel

Takeshi Matsushita

Mitsubishi Corporation International

(Europe)

Alicia Mignone

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Italy

Jongsoo Mok

Hyundai Motor

Pietro Moretto

Joint Research Centre – European

Commission

Takashi Moriya

Honda R&D

Peter Morris

Minerals Council of Australia

Hechem Nadjar

Shell

Motohiko Nishimura

Kawasaki Heavy Industry

Mikael Nordlander

Vattenfall

Eiji Ohira

NEDO

Matt Pellow

EPRI

Joris Proost

Université catholique de Louvain

Danny Pudjianto

Imperial College London

Carlo Raucci

University Maritime Advisory Services

Alison Reeve

Department of the Environment and

Energy, Australia

Henk Reimink

World Steel Association

Andrew Renton

Transpower

Martin Robinius

FZ Juelich

Mark Ruth

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Jacques Saint-Just

H2 Plus

Stanley Santos

Tata Steel Europe

Kazunari Sasaki

Kyushu University

Manfred Schuckert

Daimler

Virginie Schwarz

French Ministry of Ecology, Energy,

Sustainable Development and Spatial

Planning

Yoshiaki Shibata

The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

Bunro Shiozawa

SIP

Tristan Smith

University College London

PAGE | 6

The Future of Hydrogen

Table of contents

List of figures

Figure 1.

Global annual demand for hydrogen since 1975...................................................................................

18

Figure 2.

Policies directly supporting hydrogen deployment by target application .............................................

20

Figure 3.

Government RD&D budgets for hydrogen and fuel cells......................................................................

20

Figure 4.

Capacity of new projects for hydrogen production for energy and climate purposes, by technology

and start date .....................................................................................................................................

26

Figure 5.

A guide to the hydrogen energy value chain, from supply to end use ...................................................

29

Figure 6.

Today’s hydrogen value chains............................................................................................................

32

Figure 7.

Potential pathways for producing hydrogen and hydrogen-based products.........................................

39

Figure 8.

Production process of hydrogen from gas with CCUS..........................................................................

40

Figure 9.

Hydrogen production costs using natural gas in different regions, 2018...............................................

42

Figure 10.

Development of electrolyser capacity additions for energy purposes and their average unit size,

1990–2019..........................................................................................................................................

45

Figure 11.

Expected reduction in electrolyser CAPEX from the use of multi-stack systems...................................

47

Figure 12.

Future levelised cost of hydrogen production by operating hour for different electrolyser investment

costs (left) and electricity costs (right).................................................................................................

47

Figure 13.

Hydrogen costs from electrolysis using grid electricity ........................................................................

48

Figure 14.

Hydrogen costs from hybrid solar PV and onshore wind systems in the long term ...............................

49

Figure 15.

Hydrogen production costs in China today ..........................................................................................

51

Figure 16.

Hydrogen production costs for different technology options, 2030......................................................

52

Figure 17.

CO2 intensity of hydrogen production .................................................................................................

53

Figure 18.

Comparison of hydrogen production costs from electricity and natural gas with CCUS in the near term54

Figure 19.

Hydrogen production costs in different parts of the world ...................................................................

55

Figure 20.

Outputs and losses of different pathways for hydrogen-based fuels and feedstocks from electrolytic

hydrogen ............................................................................................................................................

56

Figure 21.

Number of new projects for making various hydrogen-based fuels and feedstocks from electrolytic

hydrogen ............................................................................................................................................

57

Figure 22.

Indicative production costs of electricity-based pathways in the near and long term ...........................

60

Figure 23.

Synthetic diesel and methane production costs and CO2 price penalty needed for competitiveness

with fossil diesel and natural gas in the long term................................................................................

62

Figure 24.

Transmission, distribution and storage elements of hydrogen value chains .........................................

68

Figure 25.

Tolerance of selected existing elements of the natural gas network to hydrogen blend shares by

volume ...............................................................................................................................................

72

Figure 26.

Current limits on hydrogen blending in natural gas networks ..............................................................

73

Figure 27.

Cost of hydrogen storage and transmission by pipeline and ship, and cost of hydrogen liquefaction

and conversion ...................................................................................................................................

78

Figure 28.

Cost of hydrogen distribution to a large centralised facility and cost of reconversion to gaseous

hydrogen ............................................................................................................................................

80

Figure 29.

Full cost of hydrogen delivery to the industrial sector by pipeline or by ship in 2030 for different

transmission distances........................................................................................................................

81

Figure 30.

Cost of delivering hydrogen or ammonia produced via electrolysis from Australia to an industrial

customer in Japan in 2030 ...................................................................................................................

82

Figure 31.

Comparison of delivered hydrogen costs for domestically produced and imported hydrogen for

selected trade routes in 2030 ..............................................................................................................

83

Figure 32.

Cost of electrolytic hydrogen imports from North Africa supplied to a hydrogen refuelling station in

Europe in 2030....................................................................................................................................

84

Figure 33.

Allowed sulphur content in oil products...............................................................................................

92

Figure 34.

Sources of hydrogen supply for refineries in selected regions, 2018.....................................................

93

Figure 35.

Hydrogen production costs compared to refining margins, 2018 .........................................................

94

Figure 36.

Future hydrogen demand in oil refining under two different pathways ................................................

95

Figure 37.

Hydrogen production costs from natural gas with and without CCUS by region under different carbon

prices, 2030 ........................................................................................................................................

97

Figure 38.

Hydrogen demand for ammonia and methanol production in 2018 ...................................................

100

Figure 39.

Hydrogen demand for primary chemical production for existing applications under current trends....

102

Figure 40.

The implications of cleaner process routes for methanol and ammonia production ...........................

105

Figure 41.

Costs and CO2 intensities for greenfield ammonia and methanol production in 2018 .........................

106

Figure 42.

Variation of ammonia and methanol production costs with fuel price in the long-term .......................

107

Figure 43.

Hydrogen consumption and production in the iron and steel sector today.........................................

109

Figure 44.

Theoretical potential for dedicated hydrogen demand for primary steel production ..........................

110

Figure 45.

Energy implications of fulfilling hydrogen demand via the DRI-EAF route..........................................

114

Figure 46.

Estimated costs of steel for selected greenfield production routes in 2018..........................................

115

PAGE | 9

The Future of Hydrogen

Table of contents

Figure 47.

Comparison of cleaner routes for steel production in the long term...................................................

116

Figure 48.

Demand for heat in industry under current trends ..............................................................................

117

Figure 49.

Economics and future potential in the context of a USD 100/tCO2 carbon price .................................

118

Figure 50.

Fuel cell electric cars in circulation, 2017–18 ......................................................................................

126

Figure 51.

Hydrogen refuelling stations and utilisation, 2018 .............................................................................

128

Figure 52.

Road vehicle fleet growth to 2030 under current trends.....................................................................

130

Figure 53.

Benchmarking hydrogen refuelling station capital costs as a function of capacity...............................

133

Figure 54.

Total cost of car ownership by powertrain, range and fuel ..................................................................

135

Figure 55.

Break-even fuel cell cost to be competitive with BEV in the long term ...............................................

136

Figure 56.

Current and future total cost of ownership of fuel/powertrain alternatives in long-haul trucks ............

137

Figure 57.

Current and future total cost of ownership of fuel/powertrain alternatives in a bulk carrier ship .........

141

Figure 58.

Break-even carbon price for ammonia to be competitive with fossil fuels ..........................................

142

Figure 59.

Spread of energy prices, performance and operational costs for gas and electric heating equipment in

IEA countries, 2017 ............................................................................................................................

147

Figure 60.

Potential hydrogen demand for heating in buildings and spread of competitive energy prices in

selected markets, 2030 .....................................................................................................................

148

Figure 61.

Development of global stationary fuel cell capacity, 2007–18 .............................................................

153

Figure 62.

Break even for hydrogen CCGT against other flexible power generation options ................................

157

Figure 63.

Levelised electricity generation costs for load balancing from natural gas and hydrogen ...................

158

Figure 64.

Levelised costs of storage as a function of discharge duration ...........................................................

159

Figure 65.

Today’s fuel prices in hydrogen-equivalent terms on an energy basis (left) and accounting for the

relative efficiencies to provide the same service (right).......................................................................

170

Figure 66.

Global distribution of existing refining, steelmaking and chemical cracking plants..............................

178

Figure 67.

Cost and emissions intensity of blending hydrogen into the gas network at different blend shares ....

183

Figure 68.

Routes for hydrogen trading with long-term costs compared to domestic production. ......................

189

List of boxes

Box 1.

Previous waves of enthusiasm for hydrogen .......................................................................................

19

Box 2.

How this report manages uncertainties about present and future costs and potentials ........................

30

Box 3.

Emerging technologies to produce hydrogen ......................................................................................

41

Box 4.

Thermal routes for hydrogen production – a case for nuclear?.............................................................

46

Box 5.

CO2 sources for synthetic hydrocarbons..............................................................................................

58

Box 6.

Production of hydrogen and ammonia from solar and wind in China ...................................................

62

Box 7.

Advantages and disadvantages of ammonia and LOHCs .....................................................................

75

Box 8.

Can California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard support low-carbon hydrogen?.........................................

98

Box 9.

Existing and planned low-carbon ammonia and methanol production...............................................

103

Box 10.

Projects for low-emissions steel production .......................................................................................

111

Box 11.

General challenges facing the use of hydrogen for heat in industry....................................................

119

Box 12.

Public and private initiatives for hydrogen in road transport..............................................................

129

Box 13.

Policy opportunities for promoting the use of hydrogen in road transport .........................................

134

Box 14.

The ENE-FARM programme in Japan ................................................................................................

145

Box 15.

Fuel cell technologies for stationary power applications ....................................................................

152

Box 16.

Using fuel cells to provide back-up power and access to electricity ....................................................

154

Box 17.

Putting low-cost energy resources to higher-value uses .....................................................................

173

Box 18.

Focus on the North Sea region ..........................................................................................................

179

Box 19.

Realising existing government targets would drive down costs by 2030.............................................

186

Box 20.

Key ongoing hydrogen projects related to hydrogen trade in Asia Pacific ..........................................

191

List of tables

Table 1.

Selected hydrogen-related government announcements since early 2018...........................................

21

Table 2.

Physical properties of hydrogen ..........................................................................................................

35

Table 3.

Techno-economic characteristics of different electrolyser technologies ..............................................

44

Table 4.

Summary of hydrogen use in industrial applications and future potential ............................................

90

Table 5.

Potential uses of hydrogen and derived products for transport applications ......................................

125

Table 6.

Potential routes to use hydrogen for buildings heat supply................................................................

144

Table 7.

The global buildings stock and share of gas in heat production in 2017 ..............................................

146

Table 8.

2030 natural gas demand for heat in buildings and indicative theoretical hydrogen demand in ...............

selected regions................................................................................................................................

149

PAGE | 10