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Chapter 5: Opportunities for hydrogen in transport, buildings and power

•Hydrogen holds long-term promise in many sectors beyond existing industrial applications. The transport, buildings and power sectors all have potential to use hydrogen if the costs of production and utilisation develop favourably relative to other options. The complex processes involved in developing and deploying hydrogen, however, mean that carefully crafted policy support will be critical.

•The competitiveness of hydrogen FCEVs in transport depends on fuel cell costs and on the building and utilisation of refuelling stations. For cars the priority is to bring down the cost of fuel cells and on-board hydrogen storage. This could make them competitive with battery electric vehicles at driving ranges of 400–500 km and make them potentially attractive for consumers that prioritise range. For trucks the priority is to reduce the delivered price of hydrogen. In early stages of deployment, building hydrogen stations that serve captive fleets on hub-and-spoke missions could help to secure high refuelling station utilisation and thus could be a way to get infrastructure construction off the ground.

•Shipping and aviation have limited low-carbon fuel options available and represent an opportunity for hydrogen-based fuels. Ammonia and hydrogen have the potential to address environmental targets in shipping, but their cost of production is high relative to oil-based fuels. Hydrogen-based liquid fuels provide a potentially attractive option for aviation at the expense of higher energy consumption and potentially higher costs. Policy support in the form of lowcarbon targets or other approaches is critical to their prospects.

•The largest near-term opportunity in buildings is blending hydrogen into existing natural gas networks. In 2030 up to 4 Mt of potential hydrogen use for heating buildings could come from low-concentration blending which, if low-carbon, could help to reduce emissions. The potential is highest in multifamily and commercial buildings, particularly in dense cities, where conversion to heat pumps is more challenging than elsewhere. Longer-term prospects in heating could include the direct use of hydrogen in hydrogen boilers or fuel cells, but both of these would depend on infrastructure upgrades and on measures to address safety concerns and provide public reassurance.

•Power generation offers many opportunities for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels. In the

near term ammonia could be co-fired in coal-fired power plants to reduce CO2 emissions. Hydrogen and ammonia can be flexible generation options when used in gas turbines or fuel cells. At the low capacity factors typical of flexible power plants, hydrogen costing under USD 2.5/kg has good potential to compete. Key low-carbon competitors for such services include natural gas with CCUS and biogas. In the longer term, hydrogen can play a role in largescale and long-term storage to balance seasonal variations.

Maximising the potential long-term promise of hydrogen depends on moving beyond the existing industrial uses of hydrogen described in Chapter 4, and on the development of a strong case for its use as a versatile fuel in various new sectors. This case rests largely on its ability to help diversify the fuel mix and, if produced from low-carbon sources, support the transition to a cleaner energy system. Numerous opportunities exist to use hydrogen outside industrial applications: practically all modes of transport could potentially be run on hydrogen or hydrogen-based fuels; building heating, cooling and electricity needs could be supplied through hydrogen; and the power sector could use hydrogen or hydrogen-rich fuels such as ammonia for the production of electricity.

Given this versatility, it may be tempting to envisage an all-encompassing low-carbon hydrogen economy in the future. However, other clean energy technology opportunities have greatly improved recently, most importantly solutions that directly use electricity, which means that the future for hydrogen may be much more one of integration into diverse and complementary energy networks. This is especially so since the use of hydrogen in certain end-use sectors faces technical and economic challenges compared with other (low-carbon) competitors. There is also an element of path dependency; for example, rail transport is already widely electrified in many countries.

This chapter explores the various possible applications of hydrogen in the transport, buildings and power sectors. It does so by reviewing the potential opportunities for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels, including their economic competitiveness against other alternatives.

Hydrogen as a basis for clean transport fuels

Hydrogen gas has long been heralded as a potential transport fuel. It is seen as offering a lowcarbon alternative to refined oil products and natural gas, and complementing other alternatives like electricity and advanced biofuels. Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) would reduce local air pollution because – like battery electric vehicles (BEVs) – they have zero tailpipe emissions. As discussed in Chapter 2, hydrogen can be converted to hydrogen-based fuels, including synthetic methane, methanol and ammonia, and synthetic liquid fuels, which have a range of potential transport uses. Synthetic liquid fuels produced from electrolytic hydrogen are often referred to as “power-to-liquid”.

The suitability of hydrogen and these hydrogen-based fuels in different transport modes is presented in Table 5, which sets out some of their main advantages and disadvantages.40 In general, hydrogen-based fuels could take advantage of existing infrastructure with limited changes in the value chain, but at the expense of efficiency losses. Hydrogen-based fuels offer particular advantages for aviation (in the form of synthetic jet fuel) and for shipping (as ammonia), sectors where it is more difficult to use either hydrogen or electricity.